One set that remains near and dear to my heart is the 2012 Panini Contenders Football set. Just a couple months before the set came out, I joined the COMC Team. This particular set has the distinct honor of being one of the first sets that I ripped with my fellow wax busting co-workers.

I’m not a big fan of a large autograph checklist, and the mammoth 145-card base and short print autograph checklist (not including insert autos) for this set was simply unbearable. Even though autographs drop at five per box for Contenders, more often than not your hits would wind up being 4 players who’s names you needed to google and one more desirable auto. We may never know the true print runs of base autos for sets like Panini Contenders, Topps Chrome, etc, but it’s realistic to believe that one would have open four or five cases (12 boxes per case x 5 autos per box = 60 autos per case), to acquire a complete set from a 145-card autograph checklist from this set.

Let’s look at who these 145 names were that made up this enormous set list from 2012 before we deep dive into what cards are worth actually investing in from the 2012 Panini Contenders set. For those who are playing along at home, be sure to tally the number of times you ask yourself, “Who?”:

101. Alfred Morris SP 102. Adrien Robinson 103. Andre Branch SP 104. B.J. Coleman SP 105. B.J. Cunningham 106. Bobby Rainey 107. Bobby Wagner SP 108. Brandon Hardin 109. Brandon Taylor 110. Bruce Irvin 111. Bryce Brown SP 112. Case Keenum 113. Casey Hayward 114. Chandler Harnish 115. Chandler Jones 116. Chris Polk 117. Chris Rainey SP 118. Josh Gordon SP 119. Coty Sensabaugh 120. Courtney Upshaw SP 121. Cyrus Gray 122. Dan Herron 123. Danny Coale 124. David DeCastro SP 125. Nigel Bradham 126. Deangelo Peterson SP 127. Demario Davis 128. Derek Wolfe SP 129. Devon Still SP 130. Devon Wylie 131. Dont’a Hightower SP 132. Dontari Poe SP 133. Dre Kirkpatrick SP 134. Bill Bentley 135. Jeff Demps SP 136. Josh Cooper 137. Fletcher Cox SP 138. George Iloka SP 139. Gerell Robinson 140. Rod Streater 141. Harrison Smith SP 142. Jamell Fleming 143. James Hanna SP 144. Janoris Jenkins SP 145. Jared Crick 146. Jeff Fuller 147. Jerel Worthy SP 148. Jonathan Martin 149. Josh Robinson 150. Juron Criner SP	151. Kellen Moore SP 152. Kendall Reyes 153. Keshawn Martin 154. Kevin Zeitler 155. Kirk Cousins 156. Ladarius Green SP 157. LaVon Brazill SP 158. Lavonte David 159. Luke Kuechly SP 160. Marc Tyler 161. Mark Barron SP 162. Jorvorskie Lane SP 163. Marvin Jones SP 164. Marvin McNutt 165. Matt Kalil 166. Melvin Ingram 167. Michael Brockers SP 168. Michael Smith SP 169. Mike Martin 170. Morris Claiborne SP 171. Mychal Kendricks SP 172. Najee Goode 173. Nick Perry 174. Olivier Vernon 175. Omar Bolden 176. Orson Charles 177. Quinton Coples SP 178. Rhett Ellison 179. Riley Reiff SP 180. Rishard Matthews 181. Ronnell Lewis SP 182. Ryan Lindley 183. Sean Spence 184. Shea McClellin 185. Stephon Gilmore 186. T.Y. Hilton SP 187. Greg Zuerlein SP 188. Tavon Wilson 189. Terrance Ganaway 190. Tim Benford 191. Tommy Streeter SP 192. Travis Benjamin 193. Trumaine Johnson 194. Tyrone Crawford 195. Vontaze Burfict 196. Whitney Mercilus SP 197. Vick Ballard 198. Vinny Curry 199. Zach Brown 200. Brandon Bolden SP	201. Andrew Luck SP 202. Robert Griffin III SP 203. Trent Richardson SP 204. Ryan Tannehill SP 205. Justin Blackmon SP 206. Brandon Weeden SP 207. Brock Osweiler 208. Michael Floyd 209. Kendall Wright 210. A.J. Jenkins 211. Doug Martin SP 212. Lamar Miller 213. Isaiah Pead SP 214. David Wilson 215. Stephen Hill 216. Mohamed Sanu SP 217. Bernard Pierce 218. Nick Foles SP 219. LaMichael James 220. Rueben Randle 221. Coby Fleener 222. Ryan Broyles 223. Dwayne Allen 224. Ronnie Hillman 225. Russell Wilson SP 226. Michael Egnew 227. Chris Givens 228. Joe Adams 229. Robert Turbin 230. Nick Toon 231. T.J. Graham 232. Brian Quick 233. DeVier Posey 234. Jarius Wright 235. Alshon Jeffery 236. Deonte Thompson SP 237. Justin Tucker SP 238. Damaris Johnson 239. Evan Rodriguez SP 240. Kris Adams SP 241. Daryl Richardson SP 242. Lance Dunbar SP 243. Blair Walsh SP 244. Miles Burris 245. Josh Norman SP

 

The Investment Group:

These four superstar quarterbacks need no introductions, as most should be household names at this juncture of their careers. Out of the gate, Andrew Luck was THE rookie autograph in the set that collectors were chasing, with Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III (more on him later) rounding out the big three autographs to chase from 2012 Panini Contenders.

Injuries in 2015 and 2017 have sidelined Luck’s stellar-up-to-this-point career. That hasn’t deterred his Contenders RC auto from fetching a premium however, as recent completed sales of Luck’s rookie ticket autograph have placed its value in the $550-$625 range.

A Seahawks Super Bowl victory in 2014 and a near repeat in 2015 propelled Russell Wilson to head of the 2012 Panini Contenders class before the ‘Hawks fell back down to earth in recent seasons. Raw copies of his base auto have settled around $225-250 for now, but PSA 10 copies of his white jersey variation autograph have seen sales of more than $600.00

The Kirk Cousins hype train is in full effect as he takes the reigns of the Minnesota Vikings in the upcoming season. RG3 was the Redskins QB to pull when 2012 Contenders was released, but now it’s Cousins that sits firmly as the third best QB in the set. Raw copies of his auto have sat in the $150-175 price range in recent weeks, with a Gem Mint BGS 9.5 hitting an all-time COMC high of $261.99 back in March. These prices should continue to rise, especially if he is able to achieve the same level of success that Case Keenum saw wearing a purple jersey in 2017, but more on him later.

It blows my mind how little love Nick Foles gets in the hobby. To steal a line from a certain NFL commentator, “Now here’s a guy…” who has a career completion percentage of 60.1%, has 61 career touchdowns to 29 interceptions, and oh yeah, a Super Bowl MVP to his name. All of this, and yet his 2012 Contenders auto is hovering at around the $50 range, a far cry from the all-time COMC high of $177.48 that it achieved in June of 2014. At just 29 years old, Foles has a proven track record and this card should be a strong long-term hold.

 The Up in the Air Crowd:

I’ve dubbed these four players the ‘Up in the Air’ crowd because even after nearly six years since product release, the jury is still out on their careers. These are players whose Contenders Rookie Ticket autos still have room to grow, but they will have to ascend upwards as they hit the prime of their careers.

Ryan Tannehill was sidelined by injury last season after leading the Dolphins to a 37-40 career record over his first five seasons. Case Keenum will be under center for the Denver Broncos, reunited with familiar coaches Vance Joseph and Gary Kubiak whom he spent time with in the Houston Texans organization. He led the Minnesota Vikings on a deep playoff run last season.

Alshon Jeffery has always had the talent to be a top-level receiver, but didn’t quite have the production output that the Eagles were looking for in his first year away from the Chicago Bears. With no shortage of talent in Philadelphia, a breakout season from Jeffery could add just another weapon to the team that will already give opposing defenses nightmares. T.Y. Hilton had his best pro season in 2016, but his production was limited in 2017 due to Andrew Luck’s injury. He’ll look to establish himself as a top receiver in the league – and should get plenty of targets to do so.

 The Value Menu:

These next three players have flown under the radar in terms of value in the 2012 Panini Contenders product, but that could all start to change in the upcoming season. Perhaps I’m a little bit partial here, but getting to watch Bobby Wagner play each week here in Seattle has led me to believe he is of the best linebackers in the league. He racked up nearly 100 tackles last season and continues to improve on a yearly basis.

No one has ever questioned Josh Gordon’s on-field abilities, but his actions off the field have led to limited action that saw him missing the 2015 and 2016 seasons completely. With renewed passion, and a seemingly new direction, if he can best his 87 reception, 1647 yard, 9 Touchdown performance in 2013, the Cleveland Browns will certainly be headed in the right direction as well.

Mohamed Sanu has always served his entire career as a very solid wide receiver who has lined up opposite of a superstar. On the Cincinnati Bengals he was overshadowed by A.J. Green, and now for the Atlanta Falcons he lines up opposite of Julio Jones.  He is one breakout season away from establishing himself as a go-to receiver. His Contenders auto can be had for less than $10 at time of writing. Taking a chance on this card could be a high-risk, high-reward venture. 

The Falls from Grace

When this product was released, these two autos were two of the top tier names on the checklist. The hype surrounding their rookie seasons was unreal. Unfortunately, no matter how bullet proof a player might look on draft day, dynamics can change in the blink of an eye.

On the field, Robert Griffin III was electric. By all accounts, his first two seasons showcased that he had all the potential to live up to the hype. However, injuries and concussions have derailed his career to date, and his 2012 Contenders auto has not come close to touching the $350 high watermark sale that it saw back in February of 2014.

Trent Richardson was taken 3^rd overall in the 2012 draft by the Cleveland Browns, behind Luck and Griffin III.  A three-year college standout, his first season in Cleveland was not a total bust – as he averaged 3.6 yards per carry over 15 games while tying Jim Brown’s record of 9 rushing TD’s by a rookie running back. He was traded to the Colts the following season and averaged just over three yards a carry splitting time before being waved in early 2015.

 Those Coy Colts:

Thanks for the memories, Chandler Harnish and Coby Fleener! By memories, I’m referring to the number of times that my heart raced every time that I saw a Colts logo on one of autographed cards, only to realize that it was not the much-coveted Andrew Luck short print auto.  Harnish and Fleener were particularly painful to hit because Harnish had a similar pose as Luck, while Fleener’s photo was the same focal length as Luck. Both players were depicted in white jerseys as well. Dwayne Allen and Vick Ballard get a pass here for being depicted in their blue jerseys. 

Most in Stock:

If you read my last installment of Sets Revisited, you’ll know that I don’t like to say anything bad about the ‘hits’ in the product that just didn’t pan out at the professional level. At the time of writing, there were over 20 copies available of the players named above all in the $1 range. Let’s take a look at what these five accomplished in their NFL careers:

Devon Wylie (WR): Devon played six games for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012 and two for the Tennessee Titans in 2013. Playing in six games in 2012, he caught six passes for 53 yards while primarily serving on kick and punt return special teams.

Bobby Rainey (RB):  Currently a free agent, Rainey suited up for nearly every game from 2013-2016 for three different teams. He’s averaged 4.0 yards per carry over 267 rushes as a commendable back up. Despite only playing 4 games in 2017, he did manage a 96-yard kickoff return for the Baltimore Ravens.

Brandon Hardin (Safety): We may never know what Brandon Hardin could have been in the NFL, as his career was derailed by injuries. In a preseason game in 2012, he was carted off the field with a neck injury and shortly after placed on injured reserve. In the final preseason game of 2013, he broke his scapula, further delaying his first appearance in the regular season. He has yet to make an appearance in a regular season game, but at 28 years old, is still considered as a free agent.

Josh Cooper (WR) – Undrafted out of Oklahoma St, Cooper played in 11 games over 2012 and 2013 for the Cleveland Browns. He caught 17 passes for 166 yards. He had a short stint with the Vikings in 2014 before being released.

Gerell Robinson (TE / WR) – Another undrafted player, Robinson played three games for the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns in 2014, but failed to register a reception.

Retrospective

Contenders has established itself as the home of the true rookie auto, and rightfully so. This flagship product is not without it’s flaws, however, as I will continue to fight tooth and nail that enormous autograph checklists are as much a pain to collectors as they are to card manufacturers in acquiring those autographs. 2012 was a particularly memorable Contenders product for myself and a lot of my fellow coworkers at COMC, as Russell Wilson had already taken over the QB job for a Seahawks team desperately in need of a direction. The chase for Andrew Luck rookie autos will remain a memorable history point in my time at COMC. I had much better results busting 2012 Panini Contenders than I did on 2012 Topps Supreme, but that’s a story for a different day.